Cindy Huang and Kate Gough
AUGUST 6, 2018
An economic, political, and humanitarian crisis has driven more than one million Venezuelans across the border into Colombia in the past year. While the crisis has deep roots, the current wave of migrants started fleeing in 2015, after the fall in oil prices and President Nicolás Maduro’s counterproductive responses. After inheriting an already failing economy from his predecessor Hugo Chávez, Maduro resorted to running his government via oil-driven patronage, printing more money, and dismantling democratic institutions. The result has been economic freefall: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates hyperinflation may reach one million percent this year. A majority of Venezuelans have involuntarily lost more than 20 pounds on average and violent crime is rampant. At some points, the Red Cross estimated an average of 37,000 migrants—both Venezuelans and returning Colombians—were moving across the border each day. Some stay for a few hours or days to gather supplies and access services before returning. Many remain in Colombia at the border or in larger cities, while others migrate onward to other countries. Across the region, there are more than 1.5 million displaced Venezuelans (see table below). The number of displaced Venezuelans may eventually exceed the number of Syrians displaced by the Syrian civil war.
There is broad consensus among experts that the situation will get worse before it gets better. Last Saturday’s apparent attempt to assassinate Maduro with drones is likely to escalate political repression and instability. The international community has condemned the Maduro regime for its most recent elections (deemed a “sham” by the United States) and called upon the government to acknowledge and address the crisis. In June, the Organization of American States took a step toward suspending Venezuela, passing a resolution to call a vote on its suspension. These are important measures, but until there is dramatic political and economic change in Venezuela, the international community must help meet humanitarian needs and prepare for the possibility that the migrants will be displaced for a protracted period.
Countries hosting Venezuelans have done so with relative welcome, keeping their borders open and offering some services and protection to migrants. In a remarkable act of solidarity, Colombia’s outgoing president, Juan Manuel Santos, announced late last week that the government would grant temporary residency and work permits to more than 440,000 undocumented Venezuelans identified in the national migrant census, bringing the total number of Venezuelans issued work permits in the past few years to 880,000. He also announced a commitment of $6.9 million to repay hospitals that have treated migrants.
But additional significant financial and other support will be required to meet the needs of both migrants and hosts. Governments in the region face the difficult dilemma of wanting to show solidarity with displaced Venezuelans while also better meeting the needs of their own vulnerable citizens. The Venezuela crisis response appeal from UNHCR puts 2018 funding requirements at $46 million, $38.5 million of which is targeted outside of Venezuela, including to support other countries in the region. The International Organization for Migration launched a regional response plan appealing for $32.3 million to support countries in the region. These estimates represent only a small fraction of the funding that will be needed for a sustainable response.
The United States has committed $60 million to supporting Venezuelans in the region since 2017. Vice President Michael Pence pledged American support to displaced Venezuelans until “democracy is restored” in Venezuela, and a bipartisan group of congressional representatives signed on to a call for countries in the region to provide protection to Venezuelans seeking refuge. In June, the European Union committed €35 million in humanitarian aid and medium-term development assistance to both Venezuelans and hosting countries. Earlier this year, Colombia submitted a proposal to the IMF to provide financing to countries in the region hosting Venezuelans. Colombia’s president-elect, Ivan Duque, has proposed the creation of a humanitarian fund to deal with the crisis, and prior to Santos’ announcement, expressed support for policies that would give migrants access to the formal labor market.
These commitments, and many others, are important and commendable—but cracks are starting to show in the response. Countries have started to increase immigration enforcement, including deporting irregular migrants. In Brazil, there are new outbreaks of measles among migrants and local indigenous populations, and reports of increasing tensions between Venezuelan migrants and their hosts. In April, the municipal government of Brazil’s northern state bordering Venezuela sued the federal government of Brazil, calling for border closures to stop the flow of migrants and more resources for social services. Border areas, which are often already home to vulnerable populations, face some of the most acute challenges—the population of Colombian border city Cucuta is now 23 percent Venezuelan.
Drawing on our ongoing research on development-led approaches to address protracted displacement, including work in collaboration with the International Rescue Committee (IRC), we offer our preliminary thinking on key issues for managing the regional effects of the Venezuelan crisis. Initial priorities include regularizing the legal status of Venezuelans, forging a regional response, and improving and expanding local service delivery to meet the needs of migrants and hosts. In addition, we discuss the potential role of the United States, building on its long-standing partnership with Colombia and leadership in the region.
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