The Situation
According to the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Centre, Tropical Storm Bret’s centre was near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 59.8 West at 500 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST) (2100 Coordinated Universal Time [UTC]), per an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Bret is moving toward the west-northwest at around 30 mph (48 km/h), and it is expected to continue at a slightly slower speed over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to move near or over Trinidad and the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are approximately 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the centre, and they are mainly north of the centre. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for that country.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
Trinidad & Tobago
Grenada
Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
Bonaire
Aruba
Curacao
Additional points of interest:
Trinidad and Tobago is not usually affected by tropical storms.
The system is not only developing at an unusually low latitude, but it also located at an unusually far east longitude; only two previous tropical storms in recorded history have developed this far east before July (in the region of the deep tropics between the Lesser Antilles and Africa): One formed on 24 June 1933, and the other on 19 June 1979. The two seasons during which these June storms formed were quite active and included some of the most infamous storms in history.
Usually, disturbances passing through this region so early in the season — originating from Africa — are quite weak and/or environmental conditions are hostile to development.
Once this system enters the Caribbean Sea, the environment is not expected to be as favourable to the development of a tropical cyclone, and it will likely succumb to strong vertical wind shear by Thursday, 22 June 2017.